Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
