Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
